Sunday, February 3, 2008

Super Tuesday

Good luck to all of the presidential candidates on Super Tuesday.

It will be interesting to see what happens in California as far as a surge for Barack. Right now, the Intrade Prediction Market indicates a 40% chance for Hillary and a 42.1% chance for Barack, but the current range is 46.9% to 60.1% for Hillary and 42.1% to 44.2% for Barack. In summary, nobody has any great confidence. Barack could stage another surge, or Haillary could stage another bounceback.

Overall, Intrade indicates Hillary has a 61.1% chance of capturing the Democratic nomination and Barack a 43% chance.

McCain has really bounced back. Intrade indicates him as having an 87.1% chance of capturing the Republican nomination, with Romney at a skimpy 8.8% chance.

For the general election, Intrade indicates Hillary having a 37.5% chance, McCain a 35.7 chance, and Barack a 24.1% chance. Romney is way back at a 3% chance.

It will be truly interesting to see how these numbers hold up after Tuesday.

-- Jack Krupansky

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