Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Barack's "sweep" of the Potomac

As expected by everyone, Barack won the primaries in Virginia, Washington, D.C., and Maryland. I don't not think that was any surprise. His margins of victory were very solid and wide, but I am not sure one way or the other whether there is any new of different information there that will impact the upcoming battles.

As the media is now pointing out, Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvannia are "must wins" for Hillary. She does have a very good chance of capturing all three, but whether her margins of victory are sufficient to pull ahead of Barack on the non-super delegate count remains to be seen. It really could go one way or the other.

Public sentiment may now be on Barack's side, but the simple truth in politics is that in the privacy of the voting booth voter's are not necessarily guided 100% by public sentiment.

Some people make a big deal about Barack now "gaining momentum", but in politics it is never, ever so simple. Momentum in politics can change at a moment's notice. Barack may be turning Hillary into an underdog, but if the Clinton's have proved one thing over the past several decades, it is that underdog status is what incentivizes them to learn and change and dedouble their efforts. Underdog status gives them a second wind.

So, Barack's "Potomac surge" does put him in the lead for now and maybe the next three weeks, but by putting Hillary in an underdog position he needs to get ready for the consequences of Hillary and Bill's reaction to being dubbed "underdog."

-- Jack Krupansky

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