Sunday, March 2, 2008

Will the Democratic presidential primary really be over after Tuesday?

To hear some people, you would think that the Democratic presidential primary will all be over after Tuesday. The Obama camp thinks they deserve to win it all on Tuesday. The Clinton camp thinks they will prevail in Texas and Ohio on Tuesday. Good luck to all of them. The thing is, nobody is thinking about whether the Democratic voters will win on Tuesday.

Let's be clear, Tuesday is not about Barack or Hillary "winning", but about two large blocks of voters deciding what their interests are.

I am sure that there are plenty of people (especially TV viewers sick to death of political ads) who wish the Democratic primary were over on Tuesday, but I do not think that the "winner's" margin will be large enough to "deliver a knockout blow" on either side.

And, don't forget that we still have the Pennsylvannia primary coming up as well. Don't their votes count? Evidently, the left-wing progressives and The Cult of Obama have already decided that the voters in Pennsylvannia can go screw themselves since The Cult will be declaring victory so matter what the results on Wednesday.

Even if Barack scores a "double knockout" on Tuesday, I still say we should let the good people of Pennsylvannia have their votes count before either candidate is chided into droping out.

Now, once we get past Pennsylvannia, things get interesting. If one candidate has at least a 30% delegate lead, then I think it makes sense for the laggard to drop out. But if the margin between the two is no more than 15% or 20%, I am not sure what the right answer is. Without a clear, overwhelming majoroty on the order of 2 to 1, neither candidate has a right to demand that the other drop out.

Camp Clinton has its share of deficiencies, but The Cult of Obama has a level of arrogance beyond the pale. Barack is no Jack Kennedy. He is no Bobbie Kennedy. He isn't even a Bill Clinton. He is simply a smooth-talking community organizer from Chicago. People should be embarrassed and ashamed that they allow his rhetoric and "charm" and "glamour" to sway their opinions. As I said, Hillary has her own issues, but in comparison, Barack indeed makes her actually look like a much stronger candidate and a more competent prospective president than she really is. And if she somehow does gain the nomination, the opposition to her by the left-wing progressives will only help her in the general election.

I would not count Hillary out yet, but I do have to admit that the odds are long against her.

As far as Tuesday, unless the results are really, really bad for Hillary (under 40% in both Texas and Ohio), the campaign will not be over until at least Pennsylvannia, and that will be a clear victory for the voters in Pennsylvannia who will be assured that their votes will count.

To repeat myself, this is not about either candidate declaring victory and winning, but about democracy and letting the democratic process play out. Let every vote count.

-- Jack Krupansky

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